Ottawa Senators at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Drake BathersonPoints1
Predators- Roman JosiGoals2
- Gustav NyquistAssists2
- Roman JosiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P313:12Gustav Nyquist Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (32), Ryan O'Reilly (29)1–4
- P218:31Roman Josi Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (33), Ryan McDonagh (17)1–3
- P118:58Drake Batherson Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (20), Tim Stützle (40)1–2
- P15:44Roman Josi Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (32), Tommy Novak (20)0–2
- P13:23Michael McCarron Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (43), Cole Smith (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:23Michael McCarron Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (43), Cole Smith (13)OTT 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 60% → 73% +14NSH 60% → 73%+14 pts
- P15:44Roman Josi Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (32), Tommy Novak (20)OTT 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 73% → 84% +11NSH 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P118:58Drake Batherson Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (20), Tim Stützle (40)OTT 1 – 2 NSH · OTT 14% → 26% +12OTT 14% → 26%+12 pts
- P218:31Roman Josi Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (33), Ryan McDonagh (17)OTT 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 78% → 92% +14NSH 78% → 92%+14 pts
- P313:12Gustav Nyquist Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (32), Ryan O'Reilly (29)OTT 1 – 4 NSH · NSH 99% → >99% +1NSH 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 63%
- Fair odds
- NSH -150
- OTT +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.8 – 3.4 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +1 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +94 Elo | NSH 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.2 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.5% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.4% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 31 |
| 28th of 318–15 | Road vs home | 13–1420th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 1–0 NSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.