Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Morgan FrostAssists2
- Owen TippettPoints2
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals1
- Dylan StromeAssists2
- Dylan StromePoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:38Dylan Strome Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (12), Joel Edmundson (5)2–5
- P36:04Anthony Mantha Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (24), Tom Wilson (13)2–4
- P217:45John Carlson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (7), Rasmus Sandin (16)2–3
- P29:55Sonny Milano Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (11), Dylan Strome (23)2–2
- P24:34Alex Ovechkin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (12), Hendrix Lapierre (6)2–1
- P118:23Owen Tippett Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (12), Morgan Frost (22)2–0
- P11:52Bobby Brink Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (21), Owen Tippett (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:23Owen Tippett Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (12), Morgan Frost (22)PHI 2 – 0 WSH · PHI 64% → 78% +15PHI 64% → 78%+15 pts
- P24:34Alex Ovechkin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (12), Hendrix Lapierre (6)PHI 2 – 1 WSH · WSH 19% → 35% +15WSH 19% → 35%+15 pts
- P29:55Sonny Milano Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (11), Dylan Strome (23)PHI 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 33% → 53% +20WSH 33% → 53%+20 pts
- P217:45John Carlson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (7), Rasmus Sandin (16)PHI 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 53% → 75% +22WSH 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P36:04Anthony Mantha Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (24), Tom Wilson (13)PHI 2 – 4 WSH · WSH 79% → 94% +15WSH 79% → 94%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Fair odds
- WSH -118
- PHI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −7 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +5 Elo | WSH 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.525th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.6% | Shot share | 47.2%25th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%16th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 14th of 3115–13 | Road vs home | 15–1415th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.