Minnesota Wild at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Jon MerrillGoals1
- Jon MerrillPoints1
Blues- Torey KrugGoals1
- Torey KrugAssists1
- Torey KrugPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:11Torey Krug Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (18)1–3
- P212:53Jake Neighbours Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (49), Torey Krug (29)1–2
- P210:06Jon Merrill Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P16:34Alexey Toropchenko Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Scott Perunovich (13), Brandon Saad (10)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:34Alexey Toropchenko Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Scott Perunovich (13), Brandon Saad (10)MIN 0 – 1 STL · STL 55% → 69% +15STL 55% → 69%+15 pts
- P210:06Jon Merrill Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 1 – 1 STL · MIN 27% → 46% +19MIN 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P212:53Jake Neighbours Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (49), Torey Krug (29)MIN 1 – 2 STL · STL 53% → 74% +20STL 53% → 74%+20 pts
- P319:11Torey Krug Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (18)MIN 1 – 3 STL · STL >99% → >99% +0STL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Fair odds
- STL -123
- MIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +1 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +37 Elo | STL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.223rd of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 47.0%26th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 91.2%8th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 17th of 3113–15 | Road vs home | 16–1110th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.