Minnesota Wild at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Ryan HartmanAssists1
- Ryan HartmanPoints1
Predators- Roman JosiGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Roman JosiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P313:57Ryan McDonagh Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (16), Colton Sissons (16)1–6
- P38:03Ryan O'Reilly Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (35), Alexandre Carrier (14)1–5
- P31:32Roman Josi Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (15), Cody Glass (5)1–4
- P217:55Filip Forsberg Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (45), Gustav Nyquist (34)1–3
- P110:48Cole Smith Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P110:40Yakov Trenin Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Roman Josi (44)1–1
- P19:51Connor Dewar Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (4), Ryan Hartman (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:51Connor Dewar Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (4), Ryan Hartman (18)MIN 1 – 0 NSH · MIN 45% → 61% +16MIN 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P110:40Yakov Trenin Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Roman Josi (44)MIN 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 39% → 55% +16NSH 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P110:48Cole Smith Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 55% → 70% +15NSH 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P217:55Filip Forsberg Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (45), Gustav Nyquist (34)MIN 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 75% → 90% +15NSH 75% → 90%+15 pts
- P31:32Roman Josi Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (15), Cody Glass (5)MIN 1 – 4 NSH · NSH 92% → 98% +6NSH 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 56%
- Fair odds
- NSH -123
- MIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +3 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +42 Elo | NSH 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | 0.015th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 16th of 3113–14 | Road vs home | 14–1416th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 NSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.