Boston Bruins at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Marc McLaughlinGoals1
- James van RiemsdykAssists1
- Marc McLaughlinPoints1
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals3
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists2
- Kyle PalmieriPoints4
Scoring summary
- P214:30Marc McLaughlin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (33), James van Riemsdyk (27)1–5
- P210:24Brock Nelson Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (29), Mike Reilly (11)0–5
- P20:46Anders Lee Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (17), Kyle Palmieri (19)0–4
- P112:19Kyle Palmieri Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (7), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (16)0–3
- P15:27Kyle Palmieri Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (28), Mathew Barzal (46)0–2
- P13:32Kyle Palmieri Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (55), Anders Lee (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:32Kyle Palmieri Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (55), Anders Lee (9)BOS 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 53% → 68% +14NYI 53% → 68%+14 pts
- P15:27Kyle Palmieri Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (28), Mathew Barzal (46)BOS 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 68% → 80% +12NYI 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P112:19Kyle Palmieri Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (7), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (16)BOS 0 – 3 NYI · NYI 81% → 90% +9NYI 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P20:46Anders Lee Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (17), Kyle Palmieri (19)BOS 0 – 4 NYI · NYI 92% → 97% +5NYI 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P210:24Brock Nelson Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (29), Mike Reilly (11)BOS 0 – 5 NYI · NYI 98% → >99% +1NYI 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 47%
- Fair odds
- NYI -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | 0 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +23 Elo | BOS 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.526th of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.1% | Shot share | 46.8%27th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 90.7%12th of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 10th of 3116–13 | Road vs home | 12–1625th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 NYI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.