St. Louis Blues at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues
Rangers- Jimmy VeseyGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists2
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:23Kaapo Kakko Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (22), Alexander Wennberg (17)0–4
- P36:23Chris Kreider Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Artemi Panarin (52), Adam Fox (41)0–3
- P119:37Jimmy Vesey Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Barclay Goodrow (8)0–2
- P15:51Vincent Trocheck Goal (23) Deflected, assists: Artemi Panarin (51), Adam Fox (40)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:51Vincent Trocheck Goal (23) Deflected, assists: Artemi Panarin (51), Adam Fox (40)STL 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 56% → 70% +14NYR 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P119:37Jimmy Vesey Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Barclay Goodrow (8)STL 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 72% → 85% +13NYR 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P36:23Chris Kreider Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Artemi Panarin (52), Adam Fox (41)STL 0 – 3 NYR · NYR 95% → >99% +5NYR 95% → >99%+5 pts
- P311:23Kaapo Kakko Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (22), Alexander Wennberg (17)STL 0 – 4 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 61%
- Fair odds
- NYR -129
- STL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | 0 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +80 Elo | NYR 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.7% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 91.2%6th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 24th of 3113–18 | Road vs home | 20–82nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–0 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.