Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Teuvo TeravainenGoals1
- Teuvo TeravainenAssists2
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints3
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:52Teuvo Teravainen Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P319:48Timo Meier Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (28), John Marino (19)3–2
- P318:49Andrei Svechnikov Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (24), Brady Skjei (26)3–1
- P32:50Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Fast (11), Brett Pesce (9)2–1
- P215:27Nico Hischier Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (40)1–1
- P112:28Martin Necas Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (23), Stefan Noesen (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:28Martin Necas Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (23), Stefan Noesen (19)CAR 1 – 0 NJ · CAR 47% → 63% +16CAR 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P215:27Nico Hischier Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (40)CAR 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 30% → 52% +22NJ 30% → 52%+22 pts
- P32:50Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Fast (11), Brett Pesce (9)CAR 2 – 1 NJ · CAR 48% → 74% +26CAR 48% → 74%+26 pts
- P318:49Andrei Svechnikov Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (24), Brady Skjei (26)CAR 3 – 1 NJ · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:48Timo Meier Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (28), John Marino (19)CAR 3 – 2 NJ · NJ 0% → <1% +0NJ 0% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 47%
- Fair odds
- NJ -115
- CAR +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | +4 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +21 Elo | CAR 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.1% | Shot share | 52.1%9th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 89.1%30th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 9th of 3116–13 | Road vs home | 14–1723rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 2–0 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.