Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Joshua RoyGoals1
- Alex NewhookAssists1
- Joshua RoyPoints1
Hurricanes- Brady SkjeiGoals2
- Andrei SvechnikovAssists1
- Brady SkjeiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:57Andrei Svechnikov Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (22)1–4
- P315:31Brady Skjei Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (8), Sebastian Aho (41)1–3
- P219:35Stefan Noesen Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Jack Drury (19), Jalen Chatfield (11)1–2
- P113:02Brady Skjei Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (25), Martin Necas (25)1–1
- P15:53Joshua Roy Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:53Joshua Roy Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (11)MTL 1 – 0 CAR · MTL 43% → 58% +15MTL 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P113:02Brady Skjei Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (25), Martin Necas (25)MTL 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 40% → 56% +16CAR 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P219:35Stefan Noesen Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Jack Drury (19), Jalen Chatfield (11)MTL 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 54% → 77% +23CAR 54% → 77%+23 pts
- P315:31Brady Skjei Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (8), Sebastian Aho (41)MTL 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 92% → >99% +8CAR 92% → >99%+8 pts
- P318:57Andrei Svechnikov Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (22)MTL 1 – 4 CAR · CAR >99% → 100% +0CAR >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 66%
- Fair odds
- CAR -134
- MTL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −1 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +112 Elo | CAR 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.2% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 89.6%26th of 31 |
| 28th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 26th of 3112–18 | Road vs home | 18–129th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 0–1 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.