Montreal Canadiens at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists2
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:17Nick Suzuki Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (31), Mike Matheson (36)4–3
- P314:55Joshua Roy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P312:19Ryan O'Reilly Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (36), Jeremy Lauzon (6)2–3
- P216:45David Savard Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (30), Nick Suzuki (36)2–2
- P216:39Brendan Gallagher Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (16), Josh Anderson (10)1–2
- P25:11Gustav Nyquist Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (34), Ryan O'Reilly (31)0–2
- P115:24Filip Forsberg Goal (30) Backhand, assists: Luke Evangelista (17), Ryan O'Reilly (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:24Filip Forsberg Goal (30) Backhand, assists: Luke Evangelista (17), Ryan O'Reilly (30)MTL 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 57% → 72% +16NSH 57% → 72%+16 pts
- P216:45David Savard Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (30), Nick Suzuki (36)MTL 2 – 2 NSH · MTL 24% → 45% +21MTL 24% → 45%+21 pts
- P312:19Ryan O'Reilly Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (36), Jeremy Lauzon (6)MTL 2 – 3 NSH · NSH 53% → 86% +33NSH 53% → 86%+33 pts
- P314:55Joshua Roy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 3 – 3 NSH · MTL 10% → 48% +38MTL 10% → 48%+38 pts
- OT0:17Nick Suzuki Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (31), Mike Matheson (36)MTL 4 – 3 NSH · MTL 48% → 89% +42MTL 48% → 89%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 68%
- Fair odds
- NSH -136
- MTL +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +7 | MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +127 Elo | NSH 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.215th of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.2% | Shot share | 50.4%15th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.8%11th of 31 |
| 29th of 311–9 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 27th of 3111–18 | Road vs home | 16–1414th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 0–1 NSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.