Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals1
- Brendan GallagherAssists1
- Joel ArmiaPoints1
Lightning- Anthony CirelliGoals1
- Steven StamkosAssists1
- Tyler MottePoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Victor Hedman Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Steven Stamkos Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Cole Caufield Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P310:18Tyler Motte Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P36:23Josh Anderson Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Cole Caufield (29), Arber Xhekaj (5)3–2
- P215:49Anthony Cirelli Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (38)2–2
- P27:44Brayden Point Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (28), Nikita Kucherov (67)2–1
- P114:34Jake Evans Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (9)2–0
- P11:27Joel Armia Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (11), Alex Newhook (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:34Jake Evans Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (9)MTL 2 – 0 TB · MTL 61% → 76% +15MTL 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P27:44Brayden Point Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (28), Nikita Kucherov (67)MTL 2 – 1 TB · TB 19% → 35% +16TB 19% → 35%+16 pts
- P215:49Anthony Cirelli Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (38)MTL 2 – 2 TB · TB 32% → 54% +22TB 32% → 54%+22 pts
- P36:23Josh Anderson Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Cole Caufield (29), Arber Xhekaj (5)MTL 3 – 2 TB · MTL 47% → 75% +29MTL 47% → 75%+29 pts
- P310:18Tyler Motte Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 3 – 3 TB · TB 20% → 53% +33TB 20% → 53%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 62%
- Fair odds
- TB -129
- MTL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −4 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +84 Elo | TB 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.1% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 89.3%29th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 26th of 3111–17 | Road vs home | 17–1211th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 0–2 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.