Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Devon ToewsAssists1
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints1
Predators- Cody GlassGoals3
- Ryan McDonaghAssists2
- Cody GlassPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:07Cody Glass Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (19), Michael McCarron (9)1–5
- P317:32Tommy Novak Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Juuse Saros (1)1–4
- P39:46Ryan O'Reilly Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (46), Filip Forsberg (33)1–3
- P214:26Cody Glass Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (21), Alexandre Carrier (15)1–2
- P117:01Nathan MacKinnon Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (47), Devon Toews (24)1–1
- P115:18Cody Glass Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (17), Ryan McDonagh (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:18Cody Glass Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (17), Ryan McDonagh (18)COL 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 54% → 70% +16NSH 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P117:01Nathan MacKinnon Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (47), Devon Toews (24)COL 1 – 1 NSH · COL 30% → 46% +16COL 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P214:26Cody Glass Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (21), Alexandre Carrier (15)COL 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 53% → 74% +21NSH 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P39:46Ryan O'Reilly Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (46), Filip Forsberg (33)COL 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 82% → 96% +14NSH 82% → 96%+14 pts
- P317:32Tommy Novak Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Juuse Saros (1)COL 1 – 4 NSH · NSH >99% → >99% +0NSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 51%
- Fair odds
- NSH -118
- COL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +5 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +7 Elo | NSH 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 50.2%15th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 90.7%11th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 16th of 3114–16 | Road vs home | 15–1416th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–1 NSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.