New York Islanders at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals2
- Brock NelsonAssists2
- Bo HorvatPoints2
Rangers- Kaapo KakkoGoals1
- K'Andre MillerAssists2
- K'Andre MillerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:42Alexis Lafrenière Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (56), K'Andre Miller (21)2–5
- P32:36Kaapo Kakko Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (23), Zac Jones (6)2–4
- P215:01Jonny Brodzinski Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: K'Andre Miller (20), Alexander Wennberg (19)2–3
- P213:55Bo Horvat Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Brock Nelson (29), Mike Reilly (13)2–2
- P210:14Will Cuylle Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lindgren (11), Adam Fox (44)1–2
- P20:27Mika Zibanejad Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (19)1–1
- P114:08Bo Horvat Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (28)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:08Bo Horvat Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (28)NYI 1 – 0 NYR · NYI 44% → 60% +17NYI 44% → 60%+17 pts
- P20:27Mika Zibanejad Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (19)NYI 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 38% → 56% +18NYR 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P210:14Will Cuylle Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lindgren (11), Adam Fox (44)NYI 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 55% → 74% +19NYR 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P213:55Bo Horvat Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Brock Nelson (29), Mike Reilly (13)NYI 2 – 2 NYR · NYI 25% → 45% +20NYI 25% → 45%+20 pts
- P215:01Jonny Brodzinski Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: K'Andre Miller (20), Alexander Wennberg (19)NYI 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 55% → 75% +21NYR 55% → 75%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 65%
- Fair odds
- NYR -133
- NYI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NYR and NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | 0 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +106 Elo | NYR 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.65th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.2% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 91.3%5th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 24th of 3113–19 | Road vs home | 22–82nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 0–1 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.