New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Brock NelsonGoals1
- Mathew BarzalAssists2
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Max JonesAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:12Cal Clutterbuck Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Martin (3), Kyle MacLean (1)6–1
- P37:56Pierre Engvall Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–1
- P30:34Bo Horvat Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (27), Mathew Barzal (48)4–1
- P20:24Alex Killorn Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Jones (9), Radko Gudas (10)3–1
- P114:28Brock Nelson Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (32), Mathew Barzal (47)3–0
- P17:28Kyle Palmieri Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Mike Reilly (12), Sebastian Aho (7)2–0
- P15:11Casey Cizikas Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:11Casey Cizikas Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (9)NYI 1 – 0 ANA · NYI 46% → 62% +15NYI 46% → 62%+15 pts
- P17:28Kyle Palmieri Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Mike Reilly (12), Sebastian Aho (7)NYI 2 – 0 ANA · NYI 62% → 76% +14NYI 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P114:28Brock Nelson Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (32), Mathew Barzal (47)NYI 3 – 0 ANA · NYI 78% → 88% +10NYI 78% → 88%+10 pts
- P20:24Alex Killorn Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Jones (9), Radko Gudas (10)NYI 3 – 1 ANA · ANA 10% → 21% +10ANA 10% → 21%+10 pts
- P30:34Bo Horvat Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (27), Mathew Barzal (48)NYI 4 – 1 ANA · NYI 89% → 97% +8NYI 89% → 97%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 49%
- Fair odds
- ANA -116
- NYI +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −6 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +10 Elo | NYI 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.929th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.2% | Shot share | 45.1%29th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 89.8%23rd of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 24th of 3112–17 | Road vs home | 9–2231st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 1–0 ANA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.