New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals1
- Brock NelsonAssists3
- Bo HorvatPoints3
Sharks- Mike HoffmanGoals1
- Givani SmithAssists1
- Mike HoffmanPoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:08Anders Lee Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (13), Ryan Pulock (8)7–2
- P216:25Sebastian Aho Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (31), Brock Nelson (26)6–2
- P214:21Mathew Barzal Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (25)5–2
- P212:04Kyle MacLean Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Martin (2), Adam Pelech (11)4–2
- P211:49Mike Hoffman Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Givani Smith (3)3–2
- P211:24Bo Horvat Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P22:45Thomas Bordeleau Goal (2) Deflected, assists: William Eklund (19), Fabian Zetterlund (13)2–1
- P118:31Alexander Romanov Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (30), Brock Nelson (24)2–0
- P10:19Noah Dobson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (18), Anders Lee (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:31Alexander Romanov Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (30), Brock Nelson (24)NYI 2 – 0 SJ · NYI 64% → 79% +15NYI 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P22:45Thomas Bordeleau Goal (2) Deflected, assists: William Eklund (19), Fabian Zetterlund (13)NYI 2 – 1 SJ · SJ 20% → 35% +15SJ 20% → 35%+15 pts
- P211:24Bo Horvat Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 3 – 1 SJ · NYI 68% → 84% +16NYI 68% → 84%+16 pts
- P211:49Mike Hoffman Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Givani Smith (3)NYI 3 – 2 SJ · SJ 16% → 32% +16SJ 16% → 32%+16 pts
- P212:04Kyle MacLean Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Martin (2), Adam Pelech (11)NYI 4 – 2 SJ · NYI 68% → 84% +16NYI 68% → 84%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 47%
- Fair odds
- SJ -115
- NYI +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +17 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · SJ: Magnus Chrona: team allows 0.43 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +18 Elo | NYI 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.330th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 4.031st of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.4 | Margin | −1.731st of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.1% | Shot share | 41.5%31st of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 89.6%27th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 31 |
| 26th of 3111–17 | Road vs home | 9–2030th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 0–1 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.