Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals3
- Miro HeiskanenAssists4
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints5
Sharks- Fabian ZetterlundGoals1
- Fabian ZetterlundAssists2
- Fabian ZetterlundPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:49Roope Hintz Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (3), Miro Heiskanen (35)7–6
- P315:42Wyatt Johnston Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (34), Jamie Benn (30)6–6
- P313:41Wyatt Johnston Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (2), Jamie Benn (29)5–6
- P312:58Logan Stankoven Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (26)4–6
- P33:02Mikael Granlund Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (11)3–6
- P217:50Filip Zadina Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Hoffman (12), Calen Addison (14)3–5
- P215:48Anthony Duclair Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (12), Mikael Granlund (29)3–4
- P28:48Wyatt Johnston Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (28), Ty Dellandrea (6)3–3
- P24:39Ryan Carpenter Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (6), Marc-Edouard Vlasic (3)2–3
- P119:27Logan Stankoven Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (33), Wyatt Johnston (25)2–2
- P118:38Jamie Benn Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (32), Jason Robertson (40)1–2
- P112:04Fabian Zetterlund Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (10), Jan Rutta (12)0–2
- P13:22Anthony Duclair Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (11), William Eklund (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:39Ryan Carpenter Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (6), Marc-Edouard Vlasic (3)DAL 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 51% → 69% +18SJ 51% → 69%+18 pts
- P28:48Wyatt Johnston Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (28), Ty Dellandrea (6)DAL 3 – 3 SJ · DAL 30% → 49% +19DAL 30% → 49%+19 pts
- P215:48Anthony Duclair Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (12), Mikael Granlund (29)DAL 3 – 4 SJ · SJ 51% → 72% +22SJ 51% → 72%+22 pts
- P315:42Wyatt Johnston Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (34), Jamie Benn (30)DAL 6 – 6 SJ · DAL 9% → 50% +41DAL 9% → 50%+41 pts
- OT1:49Roope Hintz Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (3), Miro Heiskanen (35)DAL 7 – 6 SJ · DAL 50% → 94% +45DAL 50% → 94%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 36%
- Fair odds
- SJ -105
- DAL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.1 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −8 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +96 Elo | DAL 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.230th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.931st of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −1.831st of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.0% | Shot share | 41.7%31st of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%26th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 31 |
| 6th of 3118–14 | Road vs home | 9–1930th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.