San Jose Sharks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Mikael GranlundGoals1
- Mikael GranlundPoints1
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals3
- Matt BoldyAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:01Kirill Kaprizov Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (27), Matt Boldy (26)3–4
- P32:38Kirill Kaprizov Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (25)3–3
- P30:23Anthony Duclair Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P27:01Kirill Kaprizov Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Shaw (1)2–2
- P25:46Frederick Gaudreau Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (5), Jonas Brodin (14)2–1
- P24:56Nico Sturm Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P21:41Mikael Granlund Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:41Mikael Granlund Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 1 – 0 MIN · SJ 44% → 62% +18SJ 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P27:01Kirill Kaprizov Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Shaw (1)SJ 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 36% → 56% +19MIN 36% → 56%+19 pts
- P30:23Anthony Duclair Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 3 – 2 MIN · SJ 46% → 70% +25SJ 46% → 70%+25 pts
- P32:38Kirill Kaprizov Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (25)SJ 3 – 3 MIN · MIN 28% → 54% +26MIN 28% → 54%+26 pts
- P316:01Kirill Kaprizov Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (27), Matt Boldy (26)SJ 3 – 4 MIN · MIN 52% → 93% +41MIN 52% → 93%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 67%
- Fair odds
- MIN -136
- SJ +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | MIN and SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | 0 | SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +127 Elo | MIN 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.2 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 31st of 313.9 | Goals allowed | 3.422nd of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.8 | Margin | −0.223rd of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.8% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 89.5%28th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 30th of 316–23 | Road vs home | 14–1418th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.