San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Filip ZadinaGoals1
- Luke KuninAssists2
- Luke KuninPoints2
Stars- Radek FaksaGoals1
- Craig SmithAssists1
- Radek FaksaPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jamie Benn Goal Snap Shot1–2
- SO0:00Anthony Duclair Goal Snap Shot1–2
- SO0:00Matt Duchene Goal Backhand1–2
- P34:08Jason Robertson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (31), Jamie Benn (27)2–2
- P217:08Filip Zadina Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (4)2–1
- P23:08Radek Faksa Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Sam Steel (12), Craig Smith (5)1–1
- P14:39William Eklund Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (3), Jan Rutta (11)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:39William Eklund Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (3), Jan Rutta (11)SJ 1 – 0 DAL · SJ 42% → 57% +15SJ 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P23:08Radek Faksa Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Sam Steel (12), Craig Smith (5)SJ 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 38% → 56% +18DAL 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P217:08Filip Zadina Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (4)SJ 2 – 1 DAL · SJ 45% → 68% +23SJ 45% → 68%+23 pts
- P34:08Jason Robertson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (31), Jamie Benn (27)SJ 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 27% → 54% +27DAL 27% → 54%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 69%
- Fair odds
- DAL -138
- SJ +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.4 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | +2 | SJ: Magnus Chrona: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +138 Elo | DAL 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.2 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.8 | Margin | +0.57th of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.9% | Shot share | 50.8%13th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%14th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 30th of 316–22 | Road vs home | 17–1212th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.