Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Mark KastelicGoals1
- Matthew HighmoreAssists1
- Mark KastelicPoints1
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Cam FowlerAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints1
Scoring summary
- P33:27Alex Killorn Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Olen Zellweger (2), Cam Fowler (25)1–2
- P24:42Ryan Strome Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (20), Brett Leason (8)1–1
- P12:44Mark Kastelic Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Artem Zub (18), Matthew Highmore (2)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:44Mark Kastelic Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Artem Zub (18), Matthew Highmore (2)OTT 1 – 0 ANA · OTT 46% → 61% +15OTT 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P24:42Ryan Strome Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (20), Brett Leason (8)OTT 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 34% → 53% +19ANA 34% → 53%+19 pts
- P33:27Alex Killorn Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Olen Zellweger (2), Cam Fowler (25)OTT 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 52% → 77% +25ANA 52% → 77%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 49%
- Fair odds
- ANA -117
- OTT +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −11 | OTT: Mads Sogaard: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +4 Elo | OTT 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.929th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 45.3%29th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 89.8%22nd of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 29th of 318–17 | Road vs home | 8–2131st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 0–1 ANA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.