Dallas Stars at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Roope HintzGoals1
- Roope HintzAssists2
- Roope HintzPoints3
Ducks- Ryan StromeGoals1
- Ryan StromeAssists1
- Ryan StromePoints2
Scoring summary
- P37:18Joe Pavelski Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (30), Matt Duchene (34)6–2
- P34:13Alex Killorn Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (25), Cam Fowler (26)5–2
- P214:18Mason Marchment Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (42)5–1
- P26:06Ryan Strome Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Frank Vatrano (21), Pavel Mintyukov (22)4–1
- P25:31Jamie Benn Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (37), Jason Robertson (41)4–0
- P118:56Radek Faksa Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Sam Steel (13), Joe Pavelski (31)3–0
- P117:19Roope Hintz Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (36), Jamie Benn (31)2–0
- P11:14Christopher Tanev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (29), Esa Lindell (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:14Christopher Tanev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (29), Esa Lindell (17)DAL 1 – 0 ANA · DAL 47% → 62% +15DAL 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P117:19Roope Hintz Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (36), Jamie Benn (31)DAL 2 – 0 ANA · DAL 65% → 79% +14DAL 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P118:56Radek Faksa Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Sam Steel (13), Joe Pavelski (31)DAL 3 – 0 ANA · DAL 79% → 90% +10DAL 79% → 90%+10 pts
- P25:31Jamie Benn Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (37), Jason Robertson (41)DAL 4 – 0 ANA · DAL 92% → 97% +5DAL 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P26:06Ryan Strome Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Frank Vatrano (21), Pavel Mintyukov (22)DAL 4 – 1 ANA · ANA 3% → 8% +5ANA 3% → 8%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 44%
- Fair odds
- ANA -112
- DAL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +8 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +41 Elo | DAL 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.929th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.3% | Shot share | 45.1%29th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 90.0%21st of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 4th of 3119–14 | Road vs home | 9–2130th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 ANA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.