New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals1
- Trevor MooreAssists1
- Trevor MoorePoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:38Trevor Moore Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P36:07Phillip Danault Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Trevor Moore (20), Drew Doughty (27)0–2
- P27:14Adrian Kempe Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (17), Alex Laferriere (10)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:14Adrian Kempe Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (17), Alex Laferriere (10)NYI 0 – 1 LA · LA 57% → 75% +18LA 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P36:07Phillip Danault Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Trevor Moore (20), Drew Doughty (27)NYI 0 – 2 LA · LA 81% → 95% +14LA 81% → 95%+14 pts
- P317:38Trevor Moore Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 0 – 3 LA · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 60%
- Fair odds
- LA -147
- NYI +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −4 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +73 Elo | LA 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.2% | Shot share | 53.7%5th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 31 |
| 21st of 3113–17 | Road vs home | 12–1826th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 1–0 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.