Dallas Stars at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Joe PavelskiGoals1
- Joe PavelskiAssists1
- Joe PavelskiPoints2
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Drew DoughtyAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:20Joe Pavelski Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (43)4–1
- P36:47Wyatt Johnston Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (35), Mason Marchment (29)3–1
- P210:52Jason Robertson Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (32), Esa Lindell (18)2–1
- P210:34Radek Faksa Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Craig Smith (6)1–1
- P10:26Kevin Fiala Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Drew Doughty (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:26Kevin Fiala Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Drew Doughty (26)DAL 0 – 1 LA · LA 58% → 72% +13LA 58% → 72%+13 pts
- P210:34Radek Faksa Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Craig Smith (6)DAL 1 – 1 LA · DAL 25% → 44% +19DAL 25% → 44%+19 pts
- P210:52Jason Robertson Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (32), Esa Lindell (18)DAL 2 – 1 LA · DAL 44% → 65% +21DAL 44% → 65%+21 pts
- P36:47Wyatt Johnston Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (35), Mason Marchment (29)DAL 3 – 1 LA · DAL 75% → 93% +18DAL 75% → 93%+18 pts
- P316:20Joe Pavelski Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (43)DAL 4 – 1 LA · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 55%
- Fair odds
- LA -141
- DAL +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.8 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +1 | DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +36 Elo | LA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.311th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 53.9%5th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3120–14 | Road vs home | 12–1726th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.