Ottawa Senators at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals1
- Shane PintoAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists2
- Anze KopitarPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:00Kevin Fiala Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Matt Roy (17)3–4
- P315:37Drake Batherson Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Artem Zub (19), Shane Pinto (12)3–3
- P311:46Jacob Moverare Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Drew Doughty (25), Anze Kopitar (35)2–3
- P310:24Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Anze Kopitar (34), Matt Roy (16)2–2
- P213:39Brady Tkachuk Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (11), Drake Batherson (25)2–1
- P213:24Quinton Byfield Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (5), Vladislav Gavrikov (13)1–1
- P17:33Dominik Kubalik Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Jake Sanderson (21), Tim Stützle (43)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:39Brady Tkachuk Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (11), Drake Batherson (25)OTT 2 – 1 LA · OTT 43% → 65% +22OTT 43% → 65%+22 pts
- P310:24Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Anze Kopitar (34), Matt Roy (16)OTT 2 – 2 LA · LA 21% → 54% +33LA 21% → 54%+33 pts
- P311:46Jacob Moverare Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Drew Doughty (25), Anze Kopitar (35)OTT 2 – 3 LA · LA 54% → 86% +32LA 54% → 86%+32 pts
- P315:37Drake Batherson Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Artem Zub (19), Shane Pinto (12)OTT 3 – 3 LA · OTT 8% → 47% +39OTT 8% → 47%+39 pts
- OT2:00Kevin Fiala Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Matt Roy (17)OTT 3 – 4 LA · LA 52% → 95% +43LA 52% → 95%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 64%
- Fair odds
- LA -152
- OTT +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.8 – 3.4 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +2 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +103 Elo | LA 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 60.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.311th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 53.9%5th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 91.2%7th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 29th of 318–18 | Road vs home | 11–1726th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 0–1 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.