Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals3
- Tim StutzleAssists3
- Brady TkachukPoints3
Islanders- Matt MartinGoals1
- Cal ClutterbuckAssists1
- Matt MartinPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:36Brady Tkachuk Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (13), Tim Stützle (47)4–3
- P319:22Bo Horvat Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (57), Mathew Barzal (49)3–3
- P312:14Brady Tkachuk Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (46), Drake Batherson (27)3–2
- P36:35Ridly Greig Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Tim Stützle (45), Artem Zub (20)2–2
- P216:22Kyle Palmieri Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (19), Anders Lee (12)1–2
- P211:46Brady Tkachuk Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (26), Erik Brannstrom (12)1–1
- P14:27Matt Martin Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Cal Clutterbuck (12), Kyle MacLean (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:22Kyle Palmieri Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (19), Anders Lee (12)OTT 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 53% → 75% +21NYI 53% → 75%+21 pts
- P36:35Ridly Greig Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Tim Stützle (45), Artem Zub (20)OTT 2 – 2 NYI · OTT 20% → 48% +27OTT 20% → 48%+27 pts
- P312:14Brady Tkachuk Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (46), Drake Batherson (27)OTT 3 – 2 NYI · OTT 48% → 83% +35OTT 48% → 83%+35 pts
- P319:22Bo Horvat Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (57), Mathew Barzal (49)OTT 3 – 3 NYI · NYI <1% → 51% +51NYI <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT4:36Brady Tkachuk Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (13), Tim Stützle (47)OTT 4 – 3 NYI · OTT 50% → >99% +50OTT 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 56%
- Fair odds
- NYI -123
- OTT +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +43 Elo | NYI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.325th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 47.1%24th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.8% | Save percentage | 90.8%10th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 29th of 319–20 | Road vs home | 14–1623rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 0–2 NYI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.