Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Michael BuntingGoals1
- Erik KarlssonAssists1
- Michael BuntingPoints1
Senators- Jake SandersonGoals1
- Jake SandersonAssists1
- Jake SandersonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:13Drake Batherson Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (44), Jake Sanderson (23)1–2
- P319:37Michael Bunting Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (36), Evgeni Malkin (31)1–1
- P311:06Jake Sanderson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (21), Claude Giroux (36)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P311:06Jake Sanderson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (21), Claude Giroux (36)PIT 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 52% → 84% +32OTT 52% → 84%+32 pts
- P319:37Michael Bunting Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (36), Evgeni Malkin (31)PIT 1 – 1 OTT · PIT <1% → 50% +50PIT <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT3:13Drake Batherson Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (44), Jake Sanderson (23)PIT 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 51% → 98% +48OTT 51% → 98%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 54%
- Fair odds
- OTT -121
- PIT +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −3 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +25 Elo | OTT 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.325th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 52.2%8th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 88.5%31st of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 26th of 3112–18 | Road vs home | 15–1518th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–2 OTT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.