Edmonton Oilers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Darnell NurseGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Connor McDavidPoints3
PenguinsScoring summary
- P315:58Darnell Nurse Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (23)4–0
- P310:42Darnell Nurse Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (79), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (40)3–0
- P18:53Mattias Ekholm Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (46), Connor McDavid (78)2–0
- P11:08Connor McDavid Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:08Connor McDavid Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: noneEDM 1 – 0 PIT · EDM 46% → 61% +15EDM 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P18:53Mattias Ekholm Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (46), Connor McDavid (78)EDM 2 – 0 PIT · EDM 62% → 76% +14EDM 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P310:42Darnell Nurse Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (79), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (40)EDM 3 – 0 PIT · EDM 97% → >99% +3EDM 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P315:58Darnell Nurse Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (23)EDM 4 – 0 PIT · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Fair odds
- PIT -116
- EDM +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PIT and EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −4 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +14 Elo | EDM 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.2% | Shot share | 52.2%9th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 90.8%11th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 10th of 3117–14 | Road vs home | 15–1518th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 1–0 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.