Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Warren FoegeleGoals1
- Warren FoegeleAssists1
- Warren FoegelePoints2
Sabres- Jacob BrysonGoals1
- Tage ThompsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Alex Tuch Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Leon Draisaitl Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Tage Thompson Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P311:39Jacob Bryson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none2–2
- P115:35Tage Thompson Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P114:19Warren Foegele Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (13)2–0
- P10:29Ryan McLeod Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (50), Warren Foegele (19)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:29Ryan McLeod Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (50), Warren Foegele (19)EDM 1 – 0 BUF · EDM 46% → 61% +14EDM 46% → 61%+14 pts
- P114:19Warren Foegele Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (13)EDM 2 – 0 BUF · EDM 63% → 77% +14EDM 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P115:35Tage Thompson Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 22% → 37% +14BUF 22% → 37%+14 pts
- P311:39Jacob Bryson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: noneEDM 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 17% → 51% +34BUF 17% → 51%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 49%
- Fair odds
- BUF -116
- EDM +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +10 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +9 Elo | EDM 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.2% | Shot share | 51.7%11th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.1%19th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 6th of 3117–13 | Road vs home | 13–1825th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.