Pittsburgh Penguins at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Reilly SmithAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints1
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals2
- Leon DraisaitlAssists3
- Leon DraisaitlPoints3
Scoring summary
- P312:23Evgeni Malkin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (16), Rickard Rakell (18)1–6
- P36:03Connor McDavid Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (48), Mattias Ekholm (22)0–6
- P219:10Cody Ceci Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (18), Brett Kulak (9)0–5
- P218:47Ryan McLeod Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (8), Evander Kane (15)0–4
- P25:55Zach Hyman Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (47), Evan Bouchard (43)0–3
- P22:57Corey Perry Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McLeod (12), Warren Foegele (17)0–2
- P114:07Zach Hyman Goal (41) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (74), Leon Draisaitl (46)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:07Zach Hyman Goal (41) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (74), Leon Draisaitl (46)PIT 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 55% → 71% +16EDM 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P22:57Corey Perry Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McLeod (12), Warren Foegele (17)PIT 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 72% → 85% +13EDM 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P25:55Zach Hyman Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (47), Evan Bouchard (43)PIT 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 86% → 94% +8EDM 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P218:47Ryan McLeod Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (8), Evander Kane (15)PIT 0 – 4 EDM · EDM 97% → >99% +2EDM 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P219:10Cody Ceci Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (18), Brett Kulak (9)PIT 0 – 5 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 60%
- Fair odds
- EDM -127
- PIT +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | EDM and PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −5 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +69 Elo | EDM 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.65th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 54.2%4th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3112–16 | Road vs home | 18–107th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.