Edmonton Oilers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- Danton HeinenAssists1
- Pavel ZachaPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:18Leon Draisaitl Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (76), Evan Bouchard (45)2–1
- P318:40Leon Draisaitl Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (75), Evan Bouchard (44)1–1
- P34:26Pavel Zacha Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (13), Parker Wotherspoon (6)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P34:26Pavel Zacha Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (13), Parker Wotherspoon (6)EDM 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 50% → 76% +26BOS 50% → 76%+26 pts
- P318:40Leon Draisaitl Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (75), Evan Bouchard (44)EDM 1 – 1 BOS · EDM <1% → 50% +49EDM <1% → 50%+49 pts
- OT2:18Leon Draisaitl Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (76), Evan Bouchard (45)EDM 2 – 1 BOS · EDM 50% → 96% +46EDM 50% → 96%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Fair odds
- BOS -101
- EDM +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.1 – 3.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −8 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +15 Elo | EDM 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.84th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.65th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.4% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3116–12 | Road vs home | 18–129th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.