Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals2
- David PastrnakAssists3
- David PastrnakPoints3
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- Morgan RiellyAssists1
- John TavaresPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:35Pavel Zacha Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (52), Danton Heinen (12)4–1
- P33:52John Tavares Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (38), Ilya Lyubushkin (5)3–1
- P25:07Jake DeBrusk Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (30), Brad Marchand (28)3–0
- P112:42Pavel Zacha Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (51), Jake DeBrusk (15)2–0
- P19:43Morgan Geekie Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (50), Mason Lohrei (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:43Morgan Geekie Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (50), Mason Lohrei (7)BOS 1 – 0 TOR · BOS 45% → 61% +16BOS 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P112:42Pavel Zacha Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (51), Jake DeBrusk (15)BOS 2 – 0 TOR · BOS 62% → 76% +14BOS 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P25:07Jake DeBrusk Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (30), Brad Marchand (28)BOS 3 – 0 TOR · BOS 81% → 91% +10BOS 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P33:52John Tavares Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (38), Ilya Lyubushkin (5)BOS 3 – 1 TOR · TOR 2% → 9% +7TOR 2% → 9%+7 pts
- P310:35Pavel Zacha Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (52), Danton Heinen (12)BOS 4 – 1 TOR · BOS 96% → >99% +3BOS 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Fair odds
- TOR -122
- BOS +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −4 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +36 Elo | TOR 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 4th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.0% | Shot share | 52.5%6th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%20th of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 12th of 3116–14 | Road vs home | 16–1314th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.