Buffalo Sabres at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Bowen ByramGoals1
- Bowen ByramAssists1
- Bowen ByramPoints2
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals3
- Gustav NyquistAssists3
- Filip ForsbergPoints3
Scoring summary
- P312:52Owen Power Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (13)2–4
- P36:43Filip Forsberg Goal (33) Wrap-around, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (7), Gustav Nyquist (39)1–4
- P31:49Filip Forsberg Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Gustav Nyquist (38), Ryan O'Reilly (32)1–3
- P116:15Luke Evangelista Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (1), Tommy Novak (22)1–2
- P14:23Bowen Byram Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (32), Peyton Krebs (10)1–1
- P13:53Filip Forsberg Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (47), Gustav Nyquist (37)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:53Filip Forsberg Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (47), Gustav Nyquist (37)BUF 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 61% → 74% +13NSH 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P14:23Bowen Byram Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (32), Peyton Krebs (10)BUF 1 – 1 NSH · BUF 26% → 39% +14BUF 26% → 39%+14 pts
- P116:15Luke Evangelista Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (1), Tommy Novak (22)BUF 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 60% → 75% +15NSH 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P31:49Filip Forsberg Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Gustav Nyquist (38), Ryan O'Reilly (32)BUF 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 79% → 93% +14NSH 79% → 93%+14 pts
- P36:43Filip Forsberg Goal (33) Wrap-around, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (7), Gustav Nyquist (39)BUF 1 – 4 NSH · NSH 95% → >99% +4NSH 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 69%
- Fair odds
- NSH -159
- BUF +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.8 – 3.4 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −43 | +5 | BUF: Eric Comrie: team allows 1.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +140 Elo | NSH 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 61.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.214th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.7% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.7%12th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 15th of 3115–15 | Road vs home | 16–1517th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 0–1 NSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.