Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Victor OlofssonGoals1
- Zemgus GirgensonsAssists1
- Victor OlofssonPoints1
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals1
- Morgan RiellyAssists1
- William NylanderPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:20Auston Matthews Goal (54) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (51), Morgan Rielly (39)1–2
- P26:31Victor Olofsson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (2)1–1
- P22:29William Nylander Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (17), Max Domi (25)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:29William Nylander Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (17), Max Domi (25)BUF 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 54% → 72% +17TOR 54% → 72%+17 pts
- P26:31Victor Olofsson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (2)BUF 1 – 1 TOR · BUF 28% → 46% +18BUF 28% → 46%+18 pts
- OT4:20Auston Matthews Goal (54) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (51), Morgan Rielly (39)BUF 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 51% → >99% +49TOR 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Fair odds
- TOR -125
- BUF +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −6 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +53 Elo | TOR 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 31 |
| 15th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.7% | Shot share | 52.6%6th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 14th of 3115–14 | Road vs home | 16–1414th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 2–0 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.