Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Johnny GaudreauGoals1
- Jake BeanAssists1
- Johnny GaudreauPoints1
Penguins- Reilly SmithGoals1
- Reilly SmithAssists2
- Reilly SmithPoints3
Scoring summary
- P39:53Reilly Smith Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (30)3–5
- P38:26Jeff Carter Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Bemstrom (7), Reilly Smith (18)3–4
- P38:04Jack Roslovic Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (7)3–3
- P214:32Rickard Rakell Goal (9) Deflected, assists: none2–3
- P25:28Andrew Peeke Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Bean (8), Alexandre Texier (13)2–2
- P24:31Johnny Gaudreau Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (17), Zach Werenski (34)1–2
- P118:57Evgeni Malkin Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (17), Ryan Graves (10)0–2
- P113:33Jesse Puljujarvi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Graves (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:33Jesse Puljujarvi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Graves (9)CBJ 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 59% → 74% +15PIT 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P25:28Andrew Peeke Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Bean (8), Alexandre Texier (13)CBJ 2 – 2 PIT · CBJ 25% → 42% +17CBJ 25% → 42%+17 pts
- P214:32Rickard Rakell Goal (9) Deflected, assists: noneCBJ 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 56% → 77% +20PIT 56% → 77%+20 pts
- P38:04Jack Roslovic Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (7)CBJ 3 – 3 PIT · CBJ 18% → 46% +28CBJ 18% → 46%+28 pts
- P38:26Jeff Carter Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Bemstrom (7), Reilly Smith (18)CBJ 3 – 4 PIT · PIT 54% → 83% +28PIT 54% → 83%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 62%
- Fair odds
- PIT -149
- CBJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −1 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +87 Elo | PIT 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.215th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.3% | Shot share | 52.0%9th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 91.2%7th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 28th of 3110–20 | Road vs home | 14–1418th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.