Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Kris LetangGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Kris LetangPoints1
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals2
- Hampus LindholmAssists2
- Pavel ZachaPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:33Pavel Zacha Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (53), Danton Heinen (14)1–5
- P39:36Jake DeBrusk Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (31), Hampus Lindholm (20)1–4
- P32:51Kris Letang Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (32)1–3
- P218:25Brad Marchand Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Charlie Coyle (31), Hampus Lindholm (19)0–3
- P212:48Pavel Zacha Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Geekie (18), Mason Lohrei (8)0–2
- P22:26David Pastrnak Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (18), Pavel Zacha (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:26David Pastrnak Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (18), Pavel Zacha (26)PIT 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 55% → 72% +17BOS 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P212:48Pavel Zacha Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Geekie (18), Mason Lohrei (8)PIT 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 74% → 88% +14BOS 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P218:25Brad Marchand Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Charlie Coyle (31), Hampus Lindholm (19)PIT 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 90% → 97% +7BOS 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P32:51Kris Letang Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (32)PIT 1 – 3 BOS · PIT 2% → 7% +6PIT 2% → 7%+6 pts
- P39:36Jake DeBrusk Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (31), Hampus Lindholm (20)PIT 1 – 4 BOS · BOS 97% → >99% +3BOS 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Fair odds
- BOS -128
- PIT +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −6 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +75 Elo | BOS 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 10th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 48.9%21st of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 91.7%3rd of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 25th of 3112–17 | Road vs home | 19–1311th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.