Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Sonny MilanoGoals1
- Dylan StromeAssists3
- Dylan StromePoints3
PenguinsScoring summary
- P32:13Sonny Milano Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Alexeyev (1), Dylan Strome (28)6–0
- P216:21Ivan Miroshnichenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (27), Sonny Milano (6)5–0
- P28:50Hendrix Lapierre Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (9), Alex Ovechkin (29)4–0
- P23:16Nick Jensen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (12)3–0
- P20:30Alex Ovechkin Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (26), John Carlson (31)2–0
- P11:51Tom Wilson Goal (14) Batted, assists: Beck Malenstyn (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:51Tom Wilson Goal (14) Batted, assists: Beck Malenstyn (11)WSH 1 – 0 PIT · WSH 45% → 59% +15WSH 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P20:30Alex Ovechkin Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (26), John Carlson (31)WSH 2 – 0 PIT · WSH 63% → 78% +15WSH 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P23:16Nick Jensen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (12)WSH 3 – 0 PIT · WSH 80% → 90% +11WSH 80% → 90%+11 pts
- P28:50Hendrix Lapierre Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (9), Alex Ovechkin (29)WSH 4 – 0 PIT · WSH 92% → 97% +5WSH 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P216:21Ivan Miroshnichenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (27), Sonny Milano (6)WSH 5 – 0 PIT · WSH 99% → >99% +1WSH 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Fair odds
- PIT -125
- WSH +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −1 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +52 Elo | PIT 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.214th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.2% | Shot share | 51.9%10th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 91.2%7th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 24th of 3112–16 | Road vs home | 15–1416th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.