Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Mitch MarnerGoals1
- Timothy LiljegrenAssists1
- Mitch MarnerPoints1
Bruins- Brandon CarloGoals1
- Brad MarchandAssists2
- Brad MarchandPoints2
Scoring summary
- P218:23Brandon Carlo Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (30), Jake DeBrusk (17)1–4
- P217:16Morgan Geekie Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (13), Pavel Zacha (25)1–3
- P27:56Mitch Marner Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (15)1–2
- P24:16Trent Frederic Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P15:37David Pastrnak Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (16), Brad Marchand (29)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:37David Pastrnak Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (16), Brad Marchand (29)TOR 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 59% → 73% +14BOS 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P24:16Trent Frederic Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 74% → 87% +13BOS 74% → 87%+13 pts
- P27:56Mitch Marner Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (15)TOR 1 – 2 BOS · TOR 12% → 25% +13TOR 12% → 25%+13 pts
- P217:16Morgan Geekie Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (13), Pavel Zacha (25)TOR 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 77% → 91% +14BOS 77% → 91%+14 pts
- P218:23Brandon Carlo Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (30), Jake DeBrusk (17)TOR 1 – 4 BOS · BOS 91% → 98% +6BOS 91% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Fair odds
- BOS -147
- TOR +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 3.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +1 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +74 Elo | BOS 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.65th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.5% | Shot share | 49.0%22nd of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 9th of 3115–12 | Road vs home | 18–1312th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–3 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.