Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Brady TkachukAssists1
- Tim StutzlePoints1
Sharks- Thomas BordeleauGoals2
- Mikael GranlundAssists2
- Thomas BordeleauPoints2
Scoring summary
- P214:37Thomas Bordeleau Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (31), William Eklund (20)1–2
- P29:18Tim Stützle Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (22), Brady Tkachuk (25)1–1
- P16:24Thomas Bordeleau Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (14), Mikael Granlund (30)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:24Thomas Bordeleau Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (14), Mikael Granlund (30)OTT 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 53% → 68% +15SJ 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P29:18Tim Stützle Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (22), Brady Tkachuk (25)OTT 1 – 1 SJ · OTT 29% → 48% +19OTT 29% → 48%+19 pts
- P214:37Thomas Bordeleau Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (31), William Eklund (20)OTT 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 52% → 73% +21SJ 52% → 73%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 46%
- Fair odds
- SJ -113
- OTT +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −1 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · SJ: Magnus Chrona: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +31 Elo | OTT 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.330th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 4.031st of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | −1.831st of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 41.6%31st of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 89.4%28th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 31 |
| 29th of 318–19 | Road vs home | 9–2130th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 1–0 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.