New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders
Sabres- Zach BensonGoals2
- Owen PowerAssists2
- Zach BensonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:06Zach Benson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (34), Bowen Byram (14)0–4
- P29:41Zach Benson Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Henri Jokiharju (12), Owen Power (21)0–3
- P28:15Dylan Cozens Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (12), Jeff Skinner (21)0–2
- P24:28Victor Olofsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (19), Owen Power (20)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:28Victor Olofsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (19), Owen Power (20)NYI 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 54% → 72% +18BUF 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P28:15Dylan Cozens Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (12), Jeff Skinner (21)NYI 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 73% → 87% +14BUF 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P29:41Zach Benson Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Henri Jokiharju (12), Owen Power (21)NYI 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 87% → 95% +8BUF 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P315:06Zach Benson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (34), Bowen Byram (14)NYI 0 – 4 BUF · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 57%
- Fair odds
- BUF -125
- NYI +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +8 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +51 Elo | BUF 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.3% | Shot share | 51.8%11th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 90.1%18th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 24th of 3113–18 | Road vs home | 15–1823rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 1–1 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.