Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals1
- Lucas RaymondAssists1
- Lucas RaymondPoints2
Sabres- Bowen ByramGoals2
- Zach BensonAssists2
- Zach BensonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:32Jake Walman Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (32), Olli Maatta (13)3–7
- P213:49JJ Peterka Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–7
- P29:29Lucas Raymond Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (11), Patrick Kane (19)2–6
- P29:05Bowen Byram Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (19), Zemgus Girgensons (3)1–6
- P24:27Connor Clifton Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (18)1–5
- P115:29Jeff Skinner Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (14), Dylan Cozens (25)1–4
- P113:00Zach Benson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (14), Rasmus Dahlin (33)1–3
- P112:37Ben Chiarot Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (35), Jonatan Berggren (4)1–2
- P110:09Bowen Byram Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (13), Jordan Greenway (13)0–2
- P11:07Alex Tuch Goal (18) Backhand, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:07Alex Tuch Goal (18) Backhand, assists: noneDET 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 55% → 69% +14BUF 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P110:09Bowen Byram Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (13), Jordan Greenway (13)DET 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 70% → 82% +12BUF 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P112:37Ben Chiarot Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (35), Jonatan Berggren (4)DET 1 – 2 BUF · DET 18% → 30% +13DET 18% → 30%+13 pts
- P113:00Zach Benson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (14), Rasmus Dahlin (33)DET 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 70% → 82% +13BUF 70% → 82%+13 pts
- P115:29Jeff Skinner Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (14), Dylan Cozens (25)DET 1 – 4 BUF · BUF 83% → 92% +9BUF 83% → 92%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 54%
- Fair odds
- BUF -121
- DET +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +10 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +27 Elo | BUF 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 21st of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.1% | Shot share | 51.6%11th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.1%18th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 12th of 3115–14 | Road vs home | 14–1823rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.