Detroit Red Wings at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Michael RasmussenGoals1
- David PerronAssists2
- Michael RasmussenPoints2
Golden Knights- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals3
- Jack EichelAssists3
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:53Jonathan Marchessault Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (23), Noah Hanifin (26)3–5
- P317:16Jonathan Marchessault Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (28), Ivan Barbashev (22)3–4
- P310:44Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Michael Rasmussen (15), David Perron (21)3–3
- P310:07Brayden McNabb Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Brisson (5), Jack Eichel (27)2–3
- P32:44J.T. Compher Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Moritz Seider (27), Andrew Copp (18)2–2
- P119:32Michael Rasmussen Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Moritz Seider (26), David Perron (20)1–2
- P114:36Jonathan Marchessault Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (26), Noah Hanifin (25)0–2
- P19:08Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (25), Chandler Stephenson (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:08Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (25), Chandler Stephenson (25)DET 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 69% +15VGK 55% → 69%+15 pts
- P32:44J.T. Compher Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Moritz Seider (27), Andrew Copp (18)DET 2 – 2 VGK · DET 23% → 47% +25DET 23% → 47%+25 pts
- P310:07Brayden McNabb Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Brisson (5), Jack Eichel (27)DET 2 – 3 VGK · VGK 52% → 83% +31VGK 52% → 83%+31 pts
- P310:44Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Michael Rasmussen (15), David Perron (21)DET 3 – 3 VGK · DET 16% → 48% +32DET 16% → 48%+32 pts
- P317:16Jonathan Marchessault Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (28), Ivan Barbashev (22)DET 3 – 4 VGK · VGK 51% → 96% +45VGK 51% → 96%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 54%
- Fair odds
- VGK -122
- DET +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | −7 | DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +31 Elo | VGK 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.213th of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.2% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 31 |
| 12th of 3115–13 | Road vs home | 19–117th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 VGK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.