Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Robby FabbriGoals1
- Olli MaattaAssists1
- David PerronPoints1
Avalanche- Cale MakarGoals3
- Mikko RantanenAssists4
- Cale MakarPoints4
Scoring summary
- P315:25Jean-Luc Foudy Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Joel Kiviranta (6)2–7
- P37:12Jonathan Drouin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (20), Josh Manson (13)2–6
- P219:26Cale Makar Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (52), Jonathan Drouin (26)2–5
- P216:12Cale Makar Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Mikko Rantanen (51), Nathan MacKinnon (69)2–4
- P28:49Artturi Lehkonen Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (50), Nathan MacKinnon (68)2–3
- P117:07Nathan MacKinnon Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (49), Cale Makar (53)2–2
- P113:30David Perron Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (17), Olli Maatta (12)2–1
- P15:15Cale Makar Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (26), Nathan MacKinnon (67)1–1
- P11:48Robby Fabbri Goal (16) Deflected, assists: Alex DeBrincat (31), Shayne Gostisbehere (31)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:48Robby Fabbri Goal (16) Deflected, assists: Alex DeBrincat (31), Shayne Gostisbehere (31)DET 1 – 0 COL · DET 44% → 59% +15DET 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P15:15Cale Makar Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (26), Nathan MacKinnon (67)DET 1 – 1 COL · COL 40% → 55% +15COL 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P113:30David Perron Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (17), Olli Maatta (12)DET 2 – 1 COL · DET 45% → 61% +16DET 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P117:07Nathan MacKinnon Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (49), Cale Makar (53)DET 2 – 2 COL · COL 38% → 55% +17COL 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P28:49Artturi Lehkonen Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (50), Nathan MacKinnon (68)DET 2 – 3 COL · COL 54% → 73% +19COL 54% → 73%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 58%
- Fair odds
- COL -126
- DET +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +5 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +58 Elo | COL 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 21st of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.64th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.4% | Shot share | 52.0%9th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 9th of 3115–12 | Road vs home | 22–61st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.