Chicago Blackhawks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P315:35Nathan MacKinnon Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (25), Artturi Lehkonen (11)0–5
- P217:38Zach Parise Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Caleb Jones (5), Nathan MacKinnon (66)0–4
- P212:38Cale Makar Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (65), Mikko Rantanen (48)0–3
- P117:22Jonathan Drouin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (19), Samuel Girard (13)0–2
- P112:31Nathan MacKinnon Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (25), Cale Makar (52)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:31Nathan MacKinnon Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (25), Cale Makar (52)CHI 0 – 1 COL · COL 58% → 73% +15COL 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P117:22Jonathan Drouin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (19), Samuel Girard (13)CHI 0 – 2 COL · COL 73% → 85% +12COL 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P212:38Cale Makar Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (65), Mikko Rantanen (48)CHI 0 – 3 COL · COL 89% → 96% +7COL 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P217:38Zach Parise Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Caleb Jones (5), Nathan MacKinnon (66)CHI 0 – 4 COL · COL 97% → >99% +2COL 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P315:35Nathan MacKinnon Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (25), Artturi Lehkonen (11)CHI 0 – 5 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 71%
- Fair odds
- COL -141
- CHI +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −4 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +159 Elo | COL 71.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.4 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.7% | Shot share | 52.0%10th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 90.1%19th of 31 |
| 29th of 311–9 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 31st of 314–24 | Road vs home | 21–61st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–2 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.