Ottawa Senators at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals1
- Erik BrannstromAssists1
- Claude GirouxPoints1
Blue Jackets- Boone JennerGoals1
- Johnny GaudreauAssists2
- Johnny GaudreauPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Claude Giroux Goal Slap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Alexandre Texier Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Tim Stützle Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P312:27Tim Stützle Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (9), Erik Brannstrom (11)2–2
- P37:25Claude Giroux Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Boris Katchouk (5), Mark Kastelic (2)1–2
- P35:21Alex Nylander Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (37), Zach Werenski (35)0–2
- P10:15Boone Jenner Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (36), Adam Boqvist (9)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:15Boone Jenner Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (36), Adam Boqvist (9)OTT 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 68% +14CBJ 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P35:21Alex Nylander Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (37), Zach Werenski (35)OTT 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 79% → 94% +15CBJ 79% → 94%+15 pts
- P37:25Claude Giroux Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Boris Katchouk (5), Mark Kastelic (2)OTT 1 – 2 CBJ · OTT 5% → 20% +15OTT 5% → 20%+15 pts
- P312:27Tim Stützle Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (9), Erik Brannstrom (11)OTT 2 – 2 CBJ · OTT 14% → 48% +34OTT 14% → 48%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 52%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -119
- OTT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +6 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +13 Elo | CBJ 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 47.6%23rd of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 29th of 318–20 | Road vs home | 12–2027th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 1–1 CBJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.