Columbus Blue Jackets at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals1
- Arber XhekajAssists1
- Brendan GallagherPoints1
Scoring summary
- P15:48Joshua Roy Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Arber Xhekaj (6), Alex Newhook (12)0–3
- P13:15Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (38), Cole Caufield (33)0–2
- P10:21Brendan Gallagher Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Jake Evans (17)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:21Brendan Gallagher Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Jake Evans (17)CBJ 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 55% → 68% +14MTL 55% → 68%+14 pts
- P13:15Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (38), Cole Caufield (33)CBJ 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 69% → 81% +12MTL 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P15:48Joshua Roy Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Arber Xhekaj (6), Alex Newhook (12)CBJ 0 – 3 MTL · MTL 81% → 90% +9MTL 81% → 90%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 53%
- Fair odds
- MTL -120
- CBJ +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +2 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +19 Elo | MTL 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.6 | Margin | −0.828th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.4% | Shot share | 46.2%28th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 31 |
| 16th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 31 |
| 28th of 3110–21 | Road vs home | 11–2028th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 0–2 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.