Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Mike MathesonGoals1
- Juraj SlafkovskyAssists2
- Mike MathesonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:14
John Tavares Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Jake McCabe (17), Max Domi (26)3–2 - P35:05Alex Newhook Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (20), Mike Matheson (37)2–2
- P218:41Max Domi Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (11), TJ Brodie (17)2–1
- P20:39Bobby McMann Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: David Kampf (7)1–1
- P10:38Mike Matheson Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Cole Caufield (32), Juraj Slafkovsky (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:38Mike Matheson Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Cole Caufield (32), Juraj Slafkovsky (19)TOR 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 53% → 67% +14MTL 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P20:39Bobby McMann Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: David Kampf (7)TOR 1 – 1 MTL · TOR 30% → 48% +17TOR 30% → 48%+17 pts
- P218:41Max Domi Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (11), TJ Brodie (17)TOR 2 – 1 MTL · TOR 48% → 71% +23TOR 48% → 71%+23 pts
- P35:05Alex Newhook Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (20), Mike Matheson (37)TOR 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 24% → 52% +27MTL 24% → 52%+27 pts
- P313:14John Tavares Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Jake McCabe (17), Max Domi (26)TOR 3 – 2 MTL · TOR 49% → 86% +37TOR 49% → 86%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 45%
- Fair odds
- MTL -113
- TOR +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | 0 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +34 Elo | TOR 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.828th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.6% | Shot share | 46.1%28th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 89.9%23rd of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 31 |
| 11th of 3115–13 | Road vs home | 11–1928th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 MTL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.