New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jack RoslovicGoals1
- Jack RoslovicAssists1
- Jack RoslovicPoints2
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals3
- Nikita KucherovAssists4
- Brayden PointPoints6
Scoring summary
- P316:22Nikita Kucherov Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (37), Nicholas Paul (18)3–6
- P314:48Brayden Point Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (73), Victor Hedman (54)3–5
- P312:45Steven Stamkos Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (36), Anthony Cirelli (21)3–4
- P33:41Brayden Point Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (53), Nikita Kucherov (72)3–3
- P31:48Jack Roslovic Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (42), Chris Kreider (29)3–2
- P218:43Anthony Duclair Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (35), Nikita Kucherov (71)2–2
- P212:41Brayden Point Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (70)2–1
- P116:56Braden Schneider Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (36), Jack Roslovic (18)2–0
- P113:58Artemi Panarin Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (38), Alexis Lafrenière (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:58Artemi Panarin Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (38), Alexis Lafrenière (22)NYR 1 – 0 TB · NYR 47% → 63% +16NYR 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P218:43Anthony Duclair Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (35), Nikita Kucherov (71)NYR 2 – 2 TB · TB 29% → 52% +23TB 29% → 52%+23 pts
- P31:48Jack Roslovic Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (42), Chris Kreider (29)NYR 3 – 2 TB · NYR 48% → 73% +25NYR 48% → 73%+25 pts
- P33:41Brayden Point Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (53), Nikita Kucherov (72)NYR 3 – 3 TB · TB 26% → 52% +26TB 26% → 52%+26 pts
- P312:45Steven Stamkos Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (36), Anthony Cirelli (21)NYR 3 – 4 TB · TB 51% → 86% +35TB 51% → 86%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 48%
- Fair odds
- TB -116
- NYR +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −2 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +13 Elo | NYR 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%29th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 5th of 3119–14 | Road vs home | 19–1310th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 2–0 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.