Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals2
- Yegor SharangovichAssists2
- Yegor SharangovichPoints4
Lightning- Conor ShearyGoals1
- Nick PaulAssists2
- Conor ShearyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:35Michael Eyssimont Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Sheary (10), Nicholas Paul (17)6–3
- P312:17Andrew Mangiapane Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (20), MacKenzie Weegar (21)6–2
- P36:04Blake Coleman Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (20), Jonathan Huberdeau (31)5–2
- P212:29Anthony Cirelli Goal (14) Poke, assists: Steven Stamkos (29), Nikita Kucherov (68)4–2
- P29:25Jakob Pelletier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (15), Joel Hanley (4)4–1
- P28:34Yegor Sharangovich Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (3)3–1
- P26:11Yegor Sharangovich Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (30), MacKenzie Weegar (20)2–1
- P114:28Conor Sheary Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nicholas Paul (16), Victor Hedman (51)1–1
- P111:40Dryden Hunt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:40Dryden Hunt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (19)CGY 1 – 0 TB · CGY 45% → 61% +16CGY 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P114:28Conor Sheary Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nicholas Paul (16), Victor Hedman (51)CGY 1 – 1 TB · TB 38% → 54% +17TB 38% → 54%+17 pts
- P26:11Yegor Sharangovich Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (30), MacKenzie Weegar (20)CGY 2 – 1 TB · CGY 46% → 65% +19CGY 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P28:34Yegor Sharangovich Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (3)CGY 3 – 1 TB · CGY 66% → 82% +16CGY 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P29:25Jakob Pelletier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (15), Joel Hanley (4)CGY 4 – 1 TB · CGY 82% → 93% +10CGY 82% → 93%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- CGY +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −3 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +38 Elo | TB 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%29th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 16th of 3113–15 | Road vs home | 18–129th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 1–0 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.