Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers
Lightning- Victor HedmanGoals2
- Darren RaddyshAssists5
- Darren RaddyshPoints5
Scoring summary
- P38:16Brandon Hagel Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (22), Michael Eyssimont (10)0–7
- P37:33Victor Hedman Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (34), Darren Raddysh (21)0–6
- P215:42Anthony Duclair Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Steven Stamkos (31)0–5
- P110:49Brayden Point Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (30), Victor Hedman (52)0–4
- P19:10Conor Sheary Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (20), Michael Eyssimont (9)0–3
- P15:55Nicholas Paul Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Anthony Duclair (12), Darren Raddysh (19)0–2
- P11:49Victor Hedman Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (69), Darren Raddysh (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:49Victor Hedman Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (69), Darren Raddysh (18)PHI 0 – 1 TB · TB 55% → 69% +14TB 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P15:55Nicholas Paul Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Anthony Duclair (12), Darren Raddysh (19)PHI 0 – 2 TB · TB 69% → 81% +12TB 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P19:10Conor Sheary Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (20), Michael Eyssimont (9)PHI 0 – 3 TB · TB 82% → 90% +9TB 82% → 90%+9 pts
- P110:49Brayden Point Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (30), Victor Hedman (52)PHI 0 – 4 TB · TB 91% → 96% +5TB 91% → 96%+5 pts
- P215:42Anthony Duclair Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Steven Stamkos (31)PHI 0 – 5 TB · TB >99% → >99% +1TB >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Fair odds
- TB -121
- PHI +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −6 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +27 Elo | TB 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.7% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 89.2%29th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 13th of 3116–14 | Road vs home | 18–1312th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.