Philadelphia Flyers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Garnet HathawayGoals1
- Marc StaalAssists1
- Garnet HathawayPoints1
Panthers- Gustav ForslingGoals1
- Anton LundellAssists1
- Gustav ForslingPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:38Garnet Hathaway Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Marc Staal (4), Noah Cates (10)2–1
- P27:12Gustav Forsling Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (13), Anton Lundell (19)1–1
- P20:10Ryan Poehling Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam York (14), Travis Sanheim (30)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:10Ryan Poehling Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam York (14), Travis Sanheim (30)PHI 1 – 0 FLA · PHI 44% → 62% +18PHI 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P27:12Gustav Forsling Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (13), Anton Lundell (19)PHI 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 36% → 55% +19FLA 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P319:38Garnet Hathaway Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Marc Staal (4), Noah Cates (10)PHI 2 – 1 FLA · PHI 49% → >99% +51PHI 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 65%
- Fair odds
- FLA -133
- PHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +5 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +108 Elo | FLA 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.91st of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.8% | Shot share | 55.2%2nd of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 91.8%2nd of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 31 |
| 14th of 3115–14 | Road vs home | 19–104th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.