New York Rangers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors CAR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adam FoxGoals1
- Chris KreiderAssists1
- Adam FoxPoints1
HurricanesScoring summary
- P119:52Adam Fox Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (28), Ryan Lindgren (10)1–0
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:52Adam Fox Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (28), Ryan Lindgren (10)NYR 1 – 0 CAR · NYR 42% → 60% +18NYR 42% → 60%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 60%
- Fair odds
- CAR -146
- NYR +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.8 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +14 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +71 Elo | CAR 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.3% | Shot share | 56.2%1st of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 89.7%25th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 8th of 3118–14 | Road vs home | 20–128th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 1–1 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.