Calgary Flames at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Dryden HuntGoals1
- Andrew MangiapaneAssists1
- Dryden HuntPoints1
Hurricanes- Teuvo TeravainenGoals1
- Teuvo TeravainenAssists2
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:14Teuvo Teravainen Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (13), Andrei Svechnikov (27)2–7
- P34:54Yegor Sharangovich Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: none2–6
- P219:26Seth Jarvis Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (12), Jordan Staal (17)1–6
- P213:55Brent Burns Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (20), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (12)1–5
- P24:11Dryden Hunt Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kylington (2), Andrew Mangiapane (23)1–4
- P21:15Andrei Svechnikov Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (43), Teuvo Teravainen (26)0–4
- P20:17Jalen Chatfield Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (30), Jordan Staal (16)0–3
- P117:43Sebastian Aho Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (25), Andrei Svechnikov (26)0–2
- P16:30Jordan Martinook Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (42)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:30Jordan Martinook Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (42)CGY 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 56% → 71% +14CAR 56% → 71%+14 pts
- P117:43Sebastian Aho Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (25), Andrei Svechnikov (26)CGY 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 72% → 84% +13CAR 72% → 84%+13 pts
- P20:17Jalen Chatfield Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (30), Jordan Staal (16)CGY 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 85% → 93% +8CAR 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P21:15Andrei Svechnikov Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (43), Teuvo Teravainen (26)CGY 0 – 4 CAR · CAR 93% → 97% +4CAR 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P24:11Dryden Hunt Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kylington (2), Andrew Mangiapane (23)CGY 1 – 4 CAR · CGY 2% → 6% +4CGY 2% → 6%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Fair odds
- CAR -131
- CGY +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CAR and CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +4 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.42 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +95 Elo | CAR 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%26th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 16th of 3114–16 | Road vs home | 19–128th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 1–0 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.